With a world at war, the number of refugees resulting from the crisis in Ukraine is increasing. Civilians from East Ukraine where the conflict is concentrated are fleeing to other parts of the country as well as neighbouring countries such as Russia and Poland. The Ukrainian crisis has forced over one million people to become internally displaced and has resulted in almost a million refugees fleeing from the conflict zone to neighbouring countries.

Brian Mefford a business and political consultant who has lived and worked in Ukraine for the past 16 years says this war has created up to two million refugees, where 800 000 people have fled to Russia and 1.2 million have become displaced within Ukraine itself, with another 100 000 fleeing to neighbouring countries including Belarus and Poland.

Ceasefire collapse

The Ukrainian crisis started when a new government came into power in the region and took a more pro European, western path and broke their ties with Russia. Russia responded to this by annexing the Crimean Peninsula. Fighting started in early 2014 and continued for months until Ukraine and the separatists (pro Russia fighter) came to a deal in September to halt the violence. This however did not last long and another ceasefire was called for in February of this year. Despite this ceasefire the area has seen continued fighting with more people becoming displaced on a daily basis.

“There is an uneasy peace on the borders,” Mefford told VOC News.

He adds that there has been an influx of refugees throughout the country and as he understands Ukraine is one of the top ten countries for refugees it, with countries in the Middle East towering the ranks with the refugee crisis.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has estimated that between mid-April 2014 and 14 May 2015, at least 6,334 people were killed and 15,752 wounded.

“Many aid organisations are doing what they can do to provide people with assistance, but it is estimated that only a third of the humanitarian crisis needs are being met,” Mefford continued.

“The Russians from their side have provided a number of convoys with food items, but it has been controversial. Under the Minsk agreement these conveys are supposed to be inspected, but many suspect that they are supplying weapons as well as food items into the conflict”.

The size and scale of the Ukrainian crisis has been underestimated not many people are aware of the scope of it. World headlines have been dominated by the Syrian refugee crisis as well as the migrant crisis across the Mediterranean.

Displaced people are at risk from discrimination and children particularly suffer psychological trauma as a result of the war and the conditions they are being forced to live in. as a result of the conflict as well it has been reported that there is a rise in domestic violence as people feel trapped.

End game

Mefford says that there are three possible outcomes to this conflict. Either Ukraine will become “tired” of the on-going war and give up their land or Ukraine will allow Russia to play a part in their foreign affairs. The last outcome could be that the economic sanctions imposed by the west against Russia will continue to take a toll causing a devaluation of the Russian currency and these sanctions could force Russia to withdraw from Eastern Ukraine.

With regards to the humanitarian crisis, Mefford says that the Ukrainian government is relying heavily on international aid for assistance in the war.

But with humanitarian assistance stretched thin at this point with all the ongoing conflicts in the world the Ukrainian refugee crisis might continue not to be the main focus of discussion in world news. VOC (Umarah Hartley)