During a question-and-answer session with doctors in Pretoria, Minister of Health Zweli Mkhize echoed statistics that have now become commonly expressed globally, including by German chancellor Angela Merkel, who earlier this month predicted that as much as 70% of German citizens would contract Covid-19, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

Mkhize told the doctors that 60% to 70% of South Africa are likely to contract the virus, though hopefully over a more extended period of time than would happen if containment measures were not in place.

“Sixty to 70% of the communities will be affected by this virus,” he said. “So I said to the religious leaders that most of us will get this virus.” He was referring to his meeting earlier in the day with the heads of major churches in South Africa.

Mkhize also repeated the statistic that only about 20% of these cases would be serious enough to require treatment. The fatality rate is between 2% and 3.5%.

He predicted a jump to more than 200 confirmed cases by Friday morning and South Africa will be able to radically increase its testing capacity soon.

The expert consensus has been that a vaccine or might only be available by sometime next year, though an effective treatment is likely to come far earlier; the tactic of having people self-quarantine and keep their distance from each other is to ensure that citizens don’t all get the illness at the same time, thereby overwhelming the health system’s capacity and ability to deal with infections and treatment, popularly known as “flattening the curve”.

South Africa has adopted the same strategy, though a more comprehensive lockdown may be required.

Earlier, in a statement on Thursday afternoon, the health department confirmed that the official tally of Covid-19 infections now stood at 150, while also revealing that the Free State province was now newly affected, with those numbers yet to be added.

The tallies from the Free State would be included in the count on Friday.

“We wish to advise South Africans that the Free State province now has its first confirmed cases. The patients are being informed as we speak. Some have already been taken into quarantine by the provincial government. We will fully disclose the numbers of these cases tomorrow, once all the patients are aware,” said Minister of Health Zweli Mkhize.

He added that it was pleasing that they were now seeing recoveries of previously reported Covid-19 cases.

“We are in the process of conducting further confirmation tests and medical examinations then we formally inform the public on the numbers of recoveries. At this stage, most of the patients are recovering well.”

No deaths have yet been reported.

The department said that Mkhize held an urgent teleconference with the CEOs of the private laboratories performing the Covid-19 tests.

At this meeting, the private laboratories expressed their commitment and willingness to “work hand in hand with government to perform the tests”.

“The meeting acknowledged that in order to allow for consistent reporting of cases, all information will be sent to the NICD in real time. There will be collaboration and proper compilation of the results, thereafter it will be released to the public.”

The health department added that Western Cape Health MEC Dr Mbombo informed the minister that she, together with her ministry staff, had gone into self-quarantine as a precaution after she came into contact with the French Consul-General who had earlier announced that he had tested positive.

“The MEC is feeling strong and has not exhibited any symptoms. She is now waiting to receive her results that will determine her way forward. We wish her well as we know that she has been crisscrossing the Western Cape province to ensure the state of preparedness of our health facilities for Covid-19 patients requiring admission.”

NICD information

Following the expansion of national-wide routine testing for SARS-CoV-2 in public and private laboratories, the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), a division of the National Health Laboratory Service, said it had started to transition to functioning as a reference and surveillance laboratory for Covid-19.

In a statement on Thursday afternoon, the institute said: “As of 19 March 2020, the NICD confirms 34 new Covid-19 cases bringing the total number of Covid-19 cases to 150 people, the majority of whom are based in Gauteng, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces respectively.

“Of the 34 newly confirmed Covid-19 cases, the majority are imported and two are locally transmitted. Contact tracing of all persons that the patients might have come into contact with is underway. The provincial breakdown of the new cases is as follows:

Gauteng Province

A 41-year-old female who travelled to the Democratic Republic of Congo
A 43-year-old female who travelled to the Democratic Republic of Congo
A 37-year-old female with no international travel history
A 54-year-old female who travelled to the United Kingdom
A 58-year-old male who travelled to the United Kingdom
A 38-year-old male who travelled to France
A 70-year-old female who travelled to the United States of America
A 30-year-old male who travelled to Spain
A 45-year-old male who travelled to the Democratic Republic of Congo
An 85-year-old male who travelled to Switzerland
A 64-year-old male who travelled to Vietnam and Thailand
A 41-year-old male who travelled to the Netherlands
A 23-year-old male with pending travel history
A 5-year-old female with pending travel history
A 44-year-old male with pending travel history
KwaZulu-Natal Province

A 71-year-old female who travelled to the United Kingdom
A 26-year-old male who travelled to Mexico and the United States of America
A 29-year-old female with pending travel history
Mpumalanga Province

A 56-year-old female who travelled to France
Western Cape Province

A 53-year-old female who travelled to the United Kingdom
A 30-year-old female who travelled to the Netherlands and Qatar
A 45-year-old male who travelled to Mexico
A 70-year-old female who travelled to the United States of America
A 25-year-old female who travelled to the United Kingdom
A 37-year-old female who travelled to the United Kingdom
A 43-year-old female who travelled to the United States of America
A 31-year-old male who travelled to Spain and the Netherlands
A 53-year-old female who travelled to Switzerland, Austria, Czech Republic and Germany
A 22-year-old female who travelled to the United Kingdom
A 63-year-old male who travelled to Switzerland, Czech Republic and Germany
A 22-year-old male who travelled to Spain and the Netherlands
A 32-year-old male who travelled to the United States of America
A 37-year-old male with pending travel history
A 34-year-old male with pending travel history
The institute said their work would include resolving and troubleshooting indeterminate and other unusual results as well as providing other reference laboratory functions.

“In addition, the NICD will conduct testing on routine surveillance samples to monitor the possible spread of Covid-19 across the country. Sequencing of early isolates of SARS-CoV-2 is under way and this information will be shared as soon possible.”

On Wednesday the tally had been at 116, meaning the jump is again the biggest yet.

Ramaphosa’s announcement

Ramaphosa earlier announced the figure at a meeting with religious leaders held at the Sefako Makgatho Presidential Guesthouse in Tshwane.

The president had earlier suggested that a portion of the day be set aside for the nation to “pause for a moment of prayer”, a moment of reflection and as a way of offering solidarity to those affected, afflicted and infected by the coronavirus.

However, he said this was still just a suggestion and that government was open to the “thoughts”, suggestions and proposals that religious leaders could bring forth amid the outbreak of Covid-19.

Ramaphosa encouraged religious leaders to make use of communication tools developed by the department of health that spell out what constitutes hygiene control and what to do to minimise the risk of infection and affirm these “not just in services and gatherings but in your pastoral work”.

Source: Citizen